NBA PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS 2024: UPSETS, ROUND BY ROUND PICKS, AND FINALS PICKS

So, the NBA Playoffs tip off today, and in our first-ever Underrated Playoff prediction article, we have some surprises that may shock you.

Yes, everyone and their brother is picking either the Nuggets or the Celtics over the Nuggets. Still, the reality of the second season of the NBA—the season that matters—defense, player heath, and coaches who are actually good at in-game adjustments are the things that matter most outside of legendary offensive performances.

FIRST ROUND:

Generally, the first round of the NBA playoffs is filled with surprises that no one saw coming, and we believe this year's first round isn’t any different. Many predictors focus on what happened in the season - which team won the regular matchups. Welcome to the wonderful world of paint-by-numbers playoff predicting. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Celtics over Heat: Without a healthy Jimmy Butler, Miami's culture will not pull off the upset. Celtics in 5. 

Cavaliers over Magic—It has been a great season for the Magic, but I find it hard to believe that a semi-healthy Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland will fall in the first round, which is what the second round is for! Cavs in 6. 

Pacers over Bucks—These teams hate each other, and without Giannis for the start of the series, I expect Dame's time to run out early. Expect a wide variety of season changes for the Bucks, which should include Doc Rivers' return to TV. Pacers in 6. 

Knicks over 76ers—I love what Jalen Brunson has done this year. With OG healthy, the Knicks have enough firepower on defense to slow Joel Embid down. This will be a dogfight, but the Knick's dogs will bark louder in the end—Knicks in 7. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Thunder over Pelicans—The Thunder is the youngest top seed in the NBA Playoffs' history, but that doesn’t matter because, without Zion, the Thunder will roll all over the Pelicans—Thunder in 5.

Mavericks over Clippers—Missing in action appears to be Kawhi Leonard, who loves to say anything, including his health. Most reports indicate that Leonard will miss several games early in the series. Regardless of his health, Luka, Kyrie and their new cast of Mavs are on a roll. To the second round, go the Mavs—Mavericks in 6. 

Timberwolves over Suns - Prognosticators love to bring up the regular season; in this case, the Suns dominated the series. If the T-Wolves can slow down one of the Sun's big three, then the series will be theirs. Defense matters in the playoffs - Timberwolves in 7. 

Nuggets over Lakers—As much as I would love to predict a Laker upset, it isn’t happening, but this time, LA will get a few wins—Nuggets in 6.

SECOND ROUND
Assuming we have the above predictions correct, here’s how I see round two shacking out.

Celtics over Cavaliers - if they are fraud, they will lose to the Cavs, but they aren’t—Celtics in 6. 

Knicks over Pacers—This is the easiest series to predict. Jalen Brunson and the Knicks' D will send the high-scoring Pacers' offense back to the Stone Age. Knicks in 5. 

Mavericks over Thunder - My only concern for the Mavs is their bigs in this series. Is Derek Lively really ready for prime-time NBA Playoffs, and can Daniel Gafford slow Chet Holmgren down?  Mavericks in 6.

Nuggets over Timberwolves—Can you say upset? If anyone in the Western Conference has a matchup advantage over the Nuggets, it’s the Timberwolves. Either Anthony Edwards's superstar status goes through the roof, or the Timberwolves lose in five. Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch has done a masterful job with the team this season, and I believe his defense-first mentality will allow the T-Wolves to score the series upset. I’m calling the upset Timberwolves in 6.

CONFERENCE FINALS
Welcome to the murky round of the playoff prediction industry. Assuming I’ve got everything in the first two rounds correct, the conference final matchups are pretty straightforward. 

Celtics over Knicks—Sorry, Knicks fans, but the Celtics have too much firepower. Celtics in 6.

Timberwolves over Mavericks—Remember, I made the bold prediction that the Timberwolves would beat the Nuggets. Assuming that’s correct, a Timberwolves—Mavericks series would be a completely different style of basketball for the Timberwolves, who simply match up better against the Mavs than the Nuggets. Who had Timberwolves in the NBA finals on their Bingo Cards at the start of the season? Timberwolves in 6. 

NBA FINALS

Celtics over Timberwolves in 5. Sorry, T-wolves fans, but the Celtics have too much firepower and a significantly deeper bench than Minnesota. While Jayson Tatum will probably never win league MVP, we will secure an NBA Finals MVP this year.